🏆 CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

It all comes down to this…

The 2024 NCAA lacrosse season has been incredibly fun to follow with all of you this spring, but ultimately it will come to an end this weekend. Only a few teams are still alive across the D1/D2/D3 men’s and women’s landscapes, and they all hope to be hoisting a trophy by Memorial Day.

If you haven’t watched it yet, Episode 3 of The Mitchell Pehlke Lacrosse Show will get you caught up on everything you need to know for the upcoming games…

Keep scrolling through this newsletter for key matchups, X-factors and final score predictions for Men’s D1 Championship Weekend, as well as the latest on D2/D3 title games and the D1 Women’s NCAA Tournament.

💥 Notre Dame vs. Denver

When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
Watch: ESPN2

Last Meeting: Everyone remembers the iconic 2015 NCAA Semifinals matchup between these two teams, but they have not met since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Denver came to South Bend in early March of that year and handed the Irish a 14-11 defeat at Arlotta Stadium.

Key Matchup: Notre Dame attackman Pat Kavanagh vs. Denver defenseman Jimmy Freehill. Kavanagh is the focal point of the Fighting Irish offense and has recorded a hat trick in each of his first two NCAA Tournament games this year. Freehill was a unanimous selection for 2024 Big East Defensive Player of the Year and will likely be charged with keeping Kavanagh in check.

X-Factor: Notre Dame attackman Chris Kavanagh. The spotlight shines so bright on older brother Pat that people don’t realize how lethal Chris is. He is coming off an eight-point performance against Georgetown in the NCAA Quarterfinals and leads Notre Dame in points (72) this season.

Prediction: Notre Dame 14, Denver 9

💥 Virginia vs. Maryland

When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Watch: ESPN2

Last Meeting: These former ACC rivals know each other well, especially after their meeting at College Park back in March. Virginia buried Maryland in that matchup, 14-10, thanks to a six-point performance from midfielder Griffin Schutz (4G, 2A).

Key Matchup: Virginia attackman Connor Shellenberger vs. Maryland defenseman Ajax Zappitello. Shellenberger was the 2nd-overall pick in the 2024 PLL Draft, and Zappitello went one pick after him. Shellenberger might be the Tewaaraton Award front-runner after scoring the game-winner to beat Johns Hopkins in double overtime last weekend. Zappitello, on the other hand, was just named the Lt. Raymond J. Enners Outstanding Player of the Year by USILA. When these two met in March, Shellenberger had two goals and an assist.

X-Factor: Maryland face-off specialist Luke Wierman. Remember when Wierman took the final shot against Virginia in the 2021 NCAA Championship? I’m sure he does. Wierman was crucial in Maryland’s comeback victory over Duke last weekend, winning 20-of-29 draws and scoring two goals.

Prediction: Virginia 12, Maryland 11

🏆 The NCAA Championship

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Watch: ESPN

If my NCAA Semifinals predictions come true (I’m 9-3 predicting NCAA Tournament games in this newsletter so far), we’ll get a third meeting between Notre Dame and Virginia in the title game. The first meeting was close, with the Irish winning 11-9 on the road in Charlottesville. The rematch in the semifinals of the ACC tournament was an 18-9 blowout in favor of the Irish. Virginia will put up a better fight with a natty on the line, but Notre Dame is much deeper than the Cavaliers at midfield. That depth will be essential to win two games in three days.

Prediction: Notre Dame 15, Virginia 13

🏆 NCAA Division 2/3 Finals

Adelphi vs. Lenoir-Rhyne (D2): Lenoir-Rhyne is looking to back up last year’s title run, but its been a grueling stretch to get back to the Division II title game. As the 2-seed, the Bears beat Limestone by two in the quarterfinals and Tampa by just one in the semifinals. Adelphi is the 1-seed in the tournament and faced an easier path to the NCAA Championship. The Panthers also have Dylan Renner, who just won 2024 Outstanding Player AND Outstanding Goalie of the Year from USILA.

Tufts vs. RIT (D3): RIT has an opportunity to establish a legitimate Division III dynasty by winning a third NCAA Championship in four years. Standing in the Tigers’ way, however, is a Tufts team that is quite used to the national stage. The Jumbos were in the title game against Salisbury last year and are looking to claim their fourth natty since 2010. A potential matchup to watch will be RIT defenseman Michael Grace (USILA Outstanding Defenseman of the Year) vs. Tufts attackman Jack Regnery, who leads the Jumbos with 109 points this season.

👀 NCAA Women’s Watch

The women’s semifinals will be played today, and if the two favorites win we’ll get a rematch of last year’s NCAA Championship between Northwestern and Boston College on Sunday. These two teams met earlier this season, with the Wildcats coming out on top 14-11 in Chestnut Hill, Mass. Northwestern’s Izzy Scane had a team-high five goals in that win.

Don’t overlook the underdogs in today’s matchups, though. Florida has gone on an eye-opening run to get here, knocking off traditional powers UNC, UVA and Maryland. Could the Gators stun Northwestern next? Meanwhile, Syracuse is hoping the third time will be the charm against Boston College. The first time they met this year, BC won in overtime. In the ACC Championship rematch, the Orange lost by seven goals.